How we work out planning approval odds
Our planning odds come entirely from public council decision records. Here is exactly how the numbers are made. We also explain what they do, and do not, tell you.
Where the numbers come from
Every figure is drawn from published planning decisions made by UK local planning authorities. Each application is matched to a type of work (rear extension, loft conversion, dropped kerb and so on) from its description. The approval rate is the share of decided applications (approved or refused) that were approved. Withdrawn and still-pending applications are not counted, because they were never decided.
Recent first
We lead with the last 5 years so the headline reflects how a council decides now. Planning decisions reach back decades, and a rate averaged over that whole span can hide a real change. Every page shows the date of the most recent decision behind its numbers.
When we hold a number back
A rate is only shown once a council has enough decided applications for it to be meaningful, so a tiny sample never headlines a figure. For the best- and worst-council lists the bar is higher still, and a council is ranked by how confident the number is, not the raw percentage. A council with only a handful of decisions can never top or bottom a list on chance alone. A council where we hold no refused decisions at all is left out of the lists entirely: we can't tell a genuinely lenient council from an incomplete record.
What we don't claim
- These are approved-or-refused decisions only. Withdrawn applications, including those withdrawn before a likely refusal, are excluded, so a real-world approval rate could be slightly lower than the figure shown.
- The numbers describe the public decision record we hold, which may not be a council's complete record, and say nothing about a council's policy or conduct.
- Everything is aggregate. We never publish or reference an individual application or applicant.
- A past approval rate is a track record, not a prediction for your specific application.